Golden Triangle Audubon Bird Alert Update -- April 17, 2010

There were very few migrants in Sabine Woods today (April 17); almost all of yesterday's arrivals continued their journey last night.  Essentially no arrivals were noted in the afternoon up to about 4 p.m. at least.

We believe that the heavy weather over Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Belize last evening dissuaded any migrants from setting out on a trans-Gulf journey.  Easterly winds prevailed across almost off of theGulf as they have for a week now, and many migrants are likely drifting westwards into the lower and central Texas Coast, almost becoming circum-Gulf migrants.

Projection for tomorrow's flight is difficult.  Presumably there were two days worth of migrants accumulated at the jumping off points this evening.  The cloudiness that was over the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday has moved westwards and is just offshore from the eastern coast.  However, the winds in Merida were quite strong from the north a little earlier in the evening, but had fallen to almost calm by 11 p.m. local time.  Whether this was enough to cause migrants not to set out is a good question.  The forecast winds over the Gulf at the surface and at 3,000 ft were light, and changing in direction with time, but have a significant easterly component.  The forecast time of the arrival of the front (or an outflow boundary from it) tomorrow afternoon is subject to revision as the front will be in the process of stalling over the coast.  Right now, it looks as if it will be some time in the late afternoon after any flight tomorrow has reached the coast.  Perhaps birds will see the distant buildups and stop on the coast, or perhaps a squall line will develop ahead of the front and force the migrants down.  Ground truthing will be the only reasonable option tomorrow afternoon!

John A. Whittle